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OK so TL;DR so far: Oil inspector guy probably isn lying to you. It more of a CYA/insurance thing than trying to sell you a new tank. He looks like buy canada goose jacket a jerk giving you that bad news, he doesn want to give the news anymore than you want to hear it. Also do the math so you know what you are up against (how many gallons are left when you “run out”). (end tl;dr)

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Alliance Data Systems Corporation ADS CEO Ed Heffernan on Q2 2018 Results

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It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Vikki Nakhla of AdvisIRy Partners. Thank you. The floor is yours.

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Great. Thanks, Vikki. And good morning, everyone. Joining me today as always, is Charles Horn, our CFO, and he will provide an update on the second quarter results. And then, I’ll add some color and update our 2018 outlook. We plan to keep the prepared remarks to about 20 minutes, so we can dedicate more time to Q Charles?

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Let’s go to the next slide and talk about the hot topic of the last few days, delinquencies. Even though delinquency trends improved during the quarter, as shown on the chart, the delinquency rate of 5.5% at quarter end was above our expectations. The miss was primarily due to the influence of TDRs, modified accounts and during the first quarter 2018 primarily from FEMA designated disaster areas.

What is the TDR? It is essentially our hardship program which is designed to help card holders with extenuating circumstances get back on their feet after an event, such as a hurricane. The program reduces minimum payment rates, lowers interest rates and suspends late fees. The maximum timeframe an account can stay in the program is 12 months and the accounts are not allowed to bounce into in out of the program. As you saw in the first quarter 10 Q, we added a number of accounts into the program following the natural disasters like last year.

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As accounts are added to the TDR program, a higher reserve rate is applied to these balances, assuming there’s a higher probability of later default. Reserve rate for TDRs is currently at 28%. We feel good that our allowance for bad debt reserve is adequate. For June, we were wrong about the timing of the recidivism. It was a little faster than expected. TDR accounts in the mid to late stages of delinquency who have not met the payment requirements have begun to roll to charge offs and will do so in the next several months. Past program experience suggests the majority of the drag should resolve by the end of the third quarter.

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Turing to Epsilon. Revenue decreased 5% to $514 million. Similar to the first quarter, agency revenue dropped more than 20% due to client losses in the Canada Goose Outlet CPG sector from consolidation and budget cuts. Importantly, strong expense management and the favorable shift in revenue mix allowed us to increase EBITDA margins and maintain the same level of adjusted EBITDA as the second quarter canada goose outlet 2017.

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With that, I’ll turn it over to Ed.

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Okay. For the second half guide, we don’t see things slowing down. We see a continuation of strong results from both AIR MILES and from BrandLoyalty that we saw in the second quarter. And actually, we expect the key metric AIR MILES issued to actually accelerate in the back half. So, overall, I would suggest that LoyaltyOne is back on its feet and doing quite well.

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canada goose store All right. Let’s turn to slide nine, Card Services. Obviously, it’s been another very strong first half of the year, 14% revenue growth. EBITDA growth started soft due to the higher loss rates and then moved from a minus 4% in Q1 to plus 10% in Q2. And that’s really being driven by the loss rates continuing to tick down as we move throughout the year. We’ve got almost 20% average receivable growth for active programs, and 12% reported. I’ll get into that a little bit. And then, we also are spending significant dollars in the innovation funds to support various consumer, as we call them bells and whistles, on both the frictionless mobile initiatives, as well as building out our consumer deposit platform. canada goose store

Our second half guide is going to be very familiar in terms of the revenue and receivable growth because it looked very similar to the first half. The adjusted EBITDA again, which includes the cost of funds and the cost of bad canada goose store debt, will continue to ramp up. So, we did minus 4 in Q1, plus 10 in Q2, and we should be in the 20% range in the second half. The net loss rates, which again is the ultimate driver of the credit expense, we guided to a high 6 in Q1; we came in at 6.7. We guided to a mid 6 in Q2; we came in little better at 6.4. And we are currently tracking nicely to high 5s in Q3 and mid 5s in Q4. And as Charles mentioned, that will give us approximately 6% for the year. We believe the noise from the first half is largely gone. And the delinquency rates which caused the hubbub over the last week or so in fact did decline. They were up 60 basis points in April and they declined to up only 40 basis points in June. Importantly, the early stage delinquencies have narrowed to up 25 basis points in June, which bodes well through the future.

I do want to take two minutes to talk a little bit more and circle back to the June delinquency concern that Charles covered. We did guide to a significant improvement in year over year delinquency rates during Q2. The actual results did show improvement from 60 basis points over prior year in April to 40 basis points in June. While that was a significant improvement, we had in fact guided to even better results. We do not factor in those hardship accounts that still remain, neither cured nor written off. This overstated the June delinquency number by roughly 30 of the 40 basis points. And thus, the normal run rate would have been only about 10% higher 10 basis points higher than the prior year.

Why do we make the distinction? Well, probably, the simple reason is, these accounts are placed in hardship back in the first quarter of this year. And importantly, they were fully reserved for in the first quarter of this year at a 28% reserve rate versus our less than 7% rate for the entire portfolio. So, they were completely covered off in Q1. This means that the P hit was already taken in Q1. And whenever some portion of these accounts flow to write off and out of delinquency, it’s already been Canada Goose online covered in expense. So, internally, when we carve out these accounts, when we do our internal analyses, since they’re viewed as noise, since it’s hard to compare a 28% reserve versus the 7% reserve for the portfolio, you get a little bit of apples and oranges. Our internal analysis continues to support loss rates stepping down nicely from the high 6s, as predicted to the mid 6s as predicted to the high 5s and then to the mid 5s in Q4 when recoveries are fully ramped. Frankly, I do apologize for the poor communication and will try to over communicate going forward on these complicated items. The bottom line, however, is that the credit quality within the portfolio looks quite good and losses are trending down nicely to plan.

All right. Page 10, bunch of credit metrics that you can look at, at your leisure. What I’d like to do is get into little bit more detail of what we’re trying to do strategically Canada Goose sale with the business, which is starting on page 11.

Let’s talk about the first half credit sales. And when you look at the active clients, those are clients that are not in liquidation or bankruptcy or have been terminated. And if you look at just those active clients, our credit sales are up a very healthy 12% during the quarter. Even though the printed credit sales growth was only 2%, it was masked by the liquidating files of Bon Ton, Gander Mountain and Virgin America. So, what’s left is obviously doing quite well.

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